ATK Mohun Bagan vs Sporting Delhi – Indian Super League Statistics

ATK Mohun Bagan host Sporting Delhi in Week 13 of 2025/26, with the market barking a straightforward script: home win, few goals, and a safe ride for those chasing the favourites. The numbers back that up in style. Why the host looks primed: their xG footprint at home sits at 2.47 per game, while conceding 1.03 xG. That combination fuels a 63% home-win rate and reinforces the sense the attack can punch through even when a check is required. Sporting Delhi travel with a modest away xG (1.14 for, 1.59 against) and a 17% away-win rate, suggesting they’ll need a small miracle to overturn the odds. What the markets say and why it matters: the outright is all one-way traffic (1.09 for ATK Mohun Bagan, 15.13 for Sporting Delhi). The goals picture leans toward multiple small increments rather than a shootout: Over 0.5 goals is a near-certainty at 1.02, and Over 1.5 is very likely at 1.19. Over 2.5 sits at 1.54, while Under 4.5 is a tight 1.16 — a reflection that a 2-0 or 2-1 type scoreline is plausible, not a open-ended barnstormer. BTTS sits around the mid-2.00s (2.19 for Yes, 1.59 for No), underscoring a moderate chance of both nets but not an given inevitability. Context that matters: the combined xG in this fixture tends to sit around 3.61, with ATK Mohun Bagan generating more in open play (2.47) than Sporting Delhi can muster away (1.14). The fixture also trends toward more first-half activity (Over 1.5 in the first 45 is historically 36% for BTTS, while overall first-half goals skew high at 79% for Over 0.5). In the corners and discipline domains, the typical profiles hint at a clean game with a contained blast of goals rather than a chaotic shootout. Predictions and angles you can ride: the safest angle is ATK Mohun Bagan to win (or draw) given their home identity and the double-chance at 1.05. If you’re chasing a goal-heavy outcome, Over 2.5 is reasonable value at 1.54, with Under 4.5 at 1.16 offering a hedge against a late equaliser. For BTTS, No at 1.59 carries a tilt if you expect a cautious, compact approach from the hosts. A plausible scoreline is 2-0 or 2-1 in favor of ATK Mohun Bagan, aligning with the xG narratives and home strength.