Preview: Union Berlin host St. Pauli at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Week 28 of the 2025/26 season. Data feed status is incomplete, so treat questions of exact goal timings with caution. Odds snapshot Union Berlin win: 2.07 Draw: 3.26 St. Pauli win: 3.78 Double Chance (Union Berlin Win or Draw): 1.25 BTTS Yes: 2.05 Union Berlin Clean Sheets Yes: 2.30 St. Pauli Clean Sheets Yes: 3.20 Over 2.5 Goals: 2.62 Over 1.5 Goals: 1.44 Over 0.5 Goals: 1.08 Key stats to weigh Union Berlin at home xG: 1.30; St. Pauli away xG: 1.11 Head-to-head total xG before this match: 2.41 Average BTTS across both teams prior to the match: 56% First half BTTS: 22%; Second half BTTS: 30% Over 2.5 goals likelihood (historical): 56% Average corners per match: around 8.35; Over 7.5 corners favored (1.37) Union Berlin tends to win more corners in this fixture than St. Pauli (Union has “Most Corners in the Match” at 1.81) Clean sheets: Union Berlin 2.30 to keep a clean sheet; St. Pauli 3.20 Analytical read The home advantage is meaningful: Union’s attacking edge at home is coded at +20, with overall home advantage +13. This tilts the balance in a game where you’d expect more open play. St. Pauli arrive with weaker away win-rate (14%), so a draw or a narrow home win for Union Berlin looks plausible, but the fixture history suggests there can be goals at both ends. Expected goal landscape: Union Berlin around 1.30 xG at home versus St. Pauli’s 1.11 away, reinforcing a scenario where each side breaches the net, rather than a dull stalemate. Short picks Likelihood call: Union Berlin win (with caution due to incomplete data) Best bets: Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes Corner angle: Over 7.5 corners looks favorable Bottom line With home strength and a modest xG edge, Union Berlin should press for control. The data points to a lively scoreline and a healthy corner tally, making Over 2.5 goals and BTTS a sensible pairing for a compact, risk-aware bet in this window.